Friday, August 7, 2009

PRU-13 soon?

PR Will Not Form The Next Government


Rumour in town is that the next General Elections may be as early as mid next year. I don't know how true that is but that's what I heard. If that is true, then Najib has hit the bulls-eye. PR will not be able to control more than half the parliament. It will also lose back a few states. That's how I see it if the next GE is indeed held in less than a year's time. Let's explore my predictions a little more. 

Penang. Lim Guan Eng is a good man. A down to earth leader who looks out for the interests of the people. But he is not a strong leader. He has not yet woken up to the fact that he is no longer the opposition. Blaming predecessors and the federal government will not solve his problems. He is simply not creative in tackling issues. It will be difficult to see Penang flourish under his leadership. But he is lucky that Penangites' hatred for BN is so strong that he will retain office come the next GE. 

As to the Jeff Ooi issue, let's see how LGE tackles this. JO did a boo boo and should do the necessary - apologise. And be reprimanded so as to set a precedent. 

Kelantan. Manek Urai is not a good yard stick. With a small number of voters, UMNO was able to rain cash on the land. At a GE level, no way. But PAS has always has this faction problem. Central PAS is simply unable to control their state level leaders/representatives. And the unity government bullshit. I put that down to weak leadership. And hence the unending headaches for PASleadership. Crack the whip! PAS is a cowboy party with no discipline. 

Even a 5 year old knows that PAS is full of UMNO spies. Why that has never been tackled remains a mystery alongside the UFOs and bigfoot. Are they leaving it to god to resolve their problems? God will only help those who help themselves. Nevertheless, Kelantan will remain withPAS because Kelantan is Kelantan. 

Perak. Hopefully the fire within Perakians is still strong. How long will Nizar's popularity last? The learned ones will see him as the one who lost the state for failing to see the coup coming. The other voters will continue to give him sympathy vote but that depends on the mood of the day. If PR Perak plays their cards right, they have a good chance to regain Perak. They are also helped by Zambry doing nothing since taking over. I would also like to think that many Perakians would like to send Sultan Azlan a message on the rakyat's power. Let's keep our fingers crossed. 

Selangor. This is the ONE that everyone wants. The hub of economic development in Malaysia. But this is also the most challenging state with the highest number of urban crowd with excess to information from all ends. The problem with the Selangor PR is the lack of talent and leadership - this is of course a similar trend in the entire PR. But the 'more advanced' people of Selangor demand much. Much much more than what is on offer now. The free 10 bucks water is a good goodwill exercise but the urban crowd is much too demanding. 

The economic and social welfare of the state has to be taken care off. Sadly, both are lacking. The people may be able to close an eye on the economic woes as it is global, but the social welfare? Sigh. The crime rate is sky high but PR blames the police. Brilliant. Pass the buck again. We might as well vote in the janitor if we need someone to simply pass the buck. This is a result of weakness at the leadership level. Khalid Ibrahim is a corporate man; not a politician, and not a people's man. Thaksin did well forThailand running the country the corporate manner but it is not easy to replicate that success. Honestly, what has Khalid Ibrahim done for the state? 

Khalid is another MB who is unable to control his sub-ordinates. The YBs in Selangor are getting more and more daring to step out of the line because the MB is weak. Look at Hassan 'The Trouble Maker' Ali, the UMNO spy planted in PAS. If he is not acting in the interest of the people in general, he does not deserve to be serving the people at all. To make it worse, it now looks as though it is all PAS' fault. But no. It is Hassan Ali individually under the directions of UMNO. Action must be taken against trouble makers. UMNO will continue to create more problems. I doubt if Khalid can handle all these politicking. He is after all a novice being gifted an MB position because there is none better. 

UMNO is on an all out war to win back Selangor. And PR is 'helping' UMNO realise their mission. The people are sick of in-fighting within PR Selangor and a weak MB. How has the state improved under PR? How is PR going to take the state forward? Remember, we are talking about the most advanced state in the country. The likes of Hannah Yeoh and Teresa Kok are doing good jobs but are only fire fighting. Do you see them being able to transform the state into a Tokyo? Hong Kong? Shanghai? No. Where is the mission? Where is the talent to realise the mission? Not with the likes of Loh Gwo Burne. So, I do see the people of Selangor consider returning the state to BN. At least there was clear signs of progress and prosper in the past 2 decades. PR take heed. 

Kedah. In-fighting again. And PAS central is unable to control PAS Kedah. No clear leadership in Kedah. No activity in Kedah. No progress in Kedah. No nothing in Kedah except for petty matters. Easy win for BN come the next GE. The people simply do not fill their stomach on religion - and PAS has not realise that yet. 

Central PR. Anwar is key and we all know that. But except for Anwar, all other leaders in PR are rubbish. The Lims will never grow out of being an opposition. They will never learn how to govern. It's is their blood to oppose. The ulamas are too contented with life. No real hunger to transform. And too much 'brotherly' love among each other to smack the black sheep on their thick skulls. 

I fault Anwar on this. He has created too much respect among the 3 main parties. I don't know how they are at PR level chief meetings but I guess they are very polite with each another. There can only be 1 leader to lead - this is rule #1. Unless Anwar can clearly establish this, he will never get to be an Obama. Obama seems like a nice polite guy but I cannot imagine him not running his office with a strong fist. If Anwar can implement this (if he has not already done so), then the nationwide in-fightings in PR can be tackled. At the very least, you must be seen as acting in cohesion. Perception, people, perception. He must tell off the 3 parties to put their houses in place. No rakyat will want a party to run the country when the party cannot even manage their own house. Rule with a fist Anwar, you know how that is done. Playing Mr. Nice Guy to everyone will get you and PR no where. 

UMNO senses that all is not right with PR. Their sniping has gain momentum. They know who the weaklings in PR are and where their manipulation play will work. Najib is a bastard. He is just like his father - the darkest Prime Minister of Malaysia. Bapak borek anak rintik. Abdul Razak forced Tunku out of office. Najib forced Badawi out of office. Abdul Razak started the race game in Malaysiawith May 13. Najib is playing the same race cards - unless you truly believe that the likes of Awang Selamat and Noor Azam get to write and publish as they wish. Abdul Razak introduced the NEP. Najib is doing the same thing but giving them a whole new look and names. 

Najib will be the dirtiest PM Malaysia have ever seen. 

Najib is good at camouflaging his policies. He has a team of image consultants. If you look closely, what he has opened up are those that do not concern the Malays. What he has removed are those the Malays will not benefit. In place are fine tuned policies that will benefit the Malays more than ever before and in much more direct manners. The NEPwill be a far cry compared to what Najib is implementing. 

But when it comes to power, he knows no subtlety. All his actions will be seen smack in your face. Even Mahathir had to give face to the rakyat. Not Najib. He fears not of the rakyat. And he definitely could not give a damn about PR. Perak coup, MACC, PDRM etc. are nothing of what is to come from the Twins Effect of Najib and Rosmah. 

Expect N&R to launch all out attacks to re-gain control ofMalaysia. You will be angry. You will feel insulted. You will want to leave the country. And it will all be Anwar's fault because he cannot control PKR, DAP and PAS.

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Norman